World Cup Semi-Final Preview: Germany vs Spain

With the Netherlands having booked their place in the final last night, Germany and Spain come up against each other this evening for the chance to meet them. Spain, pre-tournament favourites alongside Brazil, will go into the game as very marginal favourites against a German side which has defied all expectation in the tournament thus far and who have had praise heaped on them in abundance. Do they have enough to see off the European Champions?

The mood amongst the German fans and media before the tournament began was hardly optimistic, with the injury to Michael Ballack perceived as a further blow to a side whose chances were already limited by alleged infighting, no obvious first choice goalkeeper, and an ageing and out of form strike force. Joachim Low’s side have since made a mockery of these doubts, having notched thirteen goals and made light work of England and Argentina in the knock out stages.

Germany are benefiting from a good crop of young players, many who have come through from the side which beat England in the final of the Under-21 European Championship final in 2009 and have experience of playing together. Few would have Mezut Osil, Thomas Muller or Sami Khedira down as ‘ones to watch’ in the tournament, but they have been simply outstanding. With a few more experienced heads to provide some guidance, their pace and ability to punish teams on the break has been a revelation. 

This has also been in no small part due to Bastian Schweinsteiger presence as a midfield lynchpin, as well as the clinical finishing of Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski. After a dire season for both players in the Bundesliga, they have shown that they still have what it takes to shine on football’s greatest stage and recreate their goalscoring feats of four years ago. Klose now has the added incentive of being within sight of Ronaldo World Cup finals goal scoring record.

However, optimism generated by their attacking abilities is likely to be tempered somewhat by the side’s defensive frailties. Manuel Neuer has made a number of errors which have highlighted his rookie status, Per Mertesacker is not enjoying the kind of tournament his defensive partner Arne Friedrich is, whilst Jerome Boateng is a centre half playing at left back following Holger Badstuber’s performance to forget against Serbia.

That was a game that Germany lost of course and they have looked susceptible after conceding (although they have admittedly only conceded two goals in the tournament thus far), as highlighted by Frank Lampard’s ‘goal’ less than a minute after Matthew Upson had scored for England in the round of 16 game. Their willingness to attack puts them at risk of allowing teams to much time and space to pass and press forwards, and if there is one side that is likely to punish that, it is Spain. 

It has been a strange tournament for the Spanish thus far. After their worrying false start against Switzerland, they have progressed to the semi-finals without having yet turned in the calibre of performance associated with this vintage of players. They were wasteful in front of goal in their 2-0 defeat of Honduras, were given a scare by Chile in the 2-1 victory which ensured group qualification, and grinded out less than spectacular 1-0 wins over Portugal and Paraguay in the knock out stages.

The lack of conviction in their displays has been attributed to a number of factors. For example, many point to Vicente del Bosque’s use of two holding midfielders (Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets) in his system as opposed to the one (Marcos Senna) in the side which swept Spain to glory in the 2008 European Championships. Furthermore, Iker Casillas has looked uncharacteristically error prone in goal, whilst Fernando Torres is experiencing a well publicised loss of form and crisis of confidence.

However, they remain favourites for reason and their side is filled with star quality. Xavi and Andres Iniesta have effortlessly made the midfield tick thus far and have been able to push forward with confidence, safe in the knowledge that the midfield base is being well protected by Alonso and Busquets. As such, they have been able to provide a steady service to David Villa, who has looked deadly all tournament and will only need half a chance to put Spain on the front foot.

Spain’s strength in depth is also a key advantage that they hold over Germany. Should Del Bosque decide to drop, he has the option of bringing in Cesc Fabregas (providing he is fit) to form a five man midfield, or to promote Fernando Llorente who caused Portugal a number of problems when he came on in the last 16 tie. Should the Spanish require more width to break down the Germans, Jesus Navas and David Silva will be waiting on the bench.

As the bookmakers’ odds suggest, this is an incredibly close game to call. The dynamic and attack minded nature of the two sides suggests that there will be plenty for the neutral to enjoy, something which hopefully won’t be nullified by the high stakes involved. In the last meeting of these two sides, Spain emerged victorious to claim the Euro 2008 title. However, Germany are playing the Spaniards at their own game now, so don’t be surprised if there is a reversal of fortunes this time around.