World Cup Qualifying Preview Part 3: Republic of Ireland vs. France

The Republic of Ireland have been bitterly complaining about the decision to seed the play-offs ever since it was announced, but to be honest, the Irish only have themselves to blame.

Ireland might have emerged unbeaten from their group, but they also failed to beat anyone of note in their group, drawing twice with Bulgaria, Italy, and Montenegro. Ireland, on the evidence of their results, don’t automatically deserve to go through. As well as failing to prove that deserved to get a tie against Slovenia, Ireland threw away the opportunity to beat Italy and win the group in their second last match.

The question is whether Trapattoni has taken the current crop of Irish players as far as he can. There is probably only one player of truly world-class quality (Shay Given) and a couple of class players (Robbie Keane and Richard Dunne), with a lot of very average Premiership and Championship players making up the rest of the side. Even if Stephen Ireland and Andy Reid did come into the side, Ireland would struggle man for man against France.

Luckily for Ireland, football is a team game, which is why quite a few Irish fans were actually relatively pleased that they’re facing France. French coach Raymond Domenech is famously a little bit odd, occasionally choosing players based on their star sign, rather than on form, suitability for the position or quality.

Despite having one of the most talented squads in Europe, Domenech has regularly contrived to make a mess of qualifying tournaments, with his team only making the 2006 World Cup because he begged Zizou, Thuram and Makelele to return to the side, while they were deeply disappointing during Euro 2008, which they only qualified for when Scotland contrive to lose to Georgia. Equally, they’ve struggled this time out, initially losing to Austria and Serbia, before staging an uncertain comeback that featured a nervous draws against Romania and Serbia.

In contrast, Trapattoni has a clear and successful, if somewhat rigid, game plan for Irish success, which is simply to grind opposition teams into submission and then score from a long punt up field or set-piece. Ireland under Trapattoni have been dreadful to watch…unless you’re an Ireland fan. Compared to the reign of Steve Staunton, the brutalist efficiencies of Trapattoni’s side have been a joy to watch. Ultimately, he has decided to sacrifice creativity and passing ability for defensive solidity and work-rate.

This is why Andy Reid will probably never play for Ireland under Trapattoni, despite his recent good form and weight loss. This is a good decision, considering Ireland play a 4-4-2. Reid is not good enough to merit the re-building of the team around his attacking talents and he would massively unbalance the current system, leaving Ireland more open at the back. At the same time, Ireland would not have enough possession for him to create significantly more opportunities that could compensate for this openness.

Ireland’s best hope of beating France is therefore to stick what has already frustrated Italy and Dimitar Berbatov. However, considering this system has not really produced any wins, Ireland will be attempting to win on away goals, a difficult strategy to execute. Ireland will have to defend with everything they have this evening just to stop France messing up their plan. The last time this happened, in a qualifier for the 2006 World Cup, Ireland were coping fairly well, until Henry pulled a goal out of nowhere. Without a Plan B, Ireland lost 1-0.

Ultimately, this is Ireland’s problem. Despite Domenech’s manifest incompetence, France are still an incredible attacking force. Karim Benzema vs. Kevin Kilbane? Florent Malouda and Patrice Evra vs. Liam Lawrence and John O’Shea? Thierry Henry and Yohan Gourcuff vs. Richard Dunne and Sean St. Ledger? Does any of this sound good to Ireland fans? Ireland will have to score goals in order to qualify and if at any point they fall behind, they will have to open up and risk counter-attacks from some extremely effective and quick players.

More to the point, every Ireland fan already knows what will happen even if Trapattoni’s plan works. Ireland, in a superb display of guts, mettle, and backs-to-the-wall defending led by Richard Dunne, will hold France to a tactically impressive 0-0 draw in Dublin and then go 1-0 up in Paris when Robbie Keane scores from a flick-on from Doyle. And then…and then John O’Shea will lose concentration and then…Ireland will be eliminated in the last minute of the game.   

Football blog prediction:
As noted above, we’re going to lose in a sickening, logic-defying, throwing-things-at-the-TV fit of stupidity by one or more of our players just when it looks like we’re safe. Supporting Ireland is a bit like being a horror movie in that sense – no twist is too ridiculous and you’re doomed no matter what you do. I had a brief, ill-advised moment of confidence when we were 2-1 up against Italy, but now I’m just steeling myself for the inevitable.

In South Africa, France will appear to be doing OK, then embarrass themselves in some unlikely and amusing fashion, going out in the first round. Domenech will be given an extension on his contract.

Shane Murray

November 11, 2009