Predicting the Premier League: it’s not always that easy

What a difference a few months can make. Oh how the mighty have fallen. As a participant in The Football Blog World Cup predictions pool through Sportguru, I was riding high. In the Premier League incarnation I am a lowly thirteenth out of fifteen players.

Some of the newly promoted sides have predictably been given a rude awakening by the traditional ‘Big Four’ (although fourth spot is seemingly up for grabs again following the demise of Liverpool and the inexorable rise of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City).

West Bromwich Albion were thrashed 6-0 on the opening day by champions Chelsea. Blackpool were similarly dispatched at the Emirates by a ruthless Arsenal.

So where has it all gone wrong for me so far? Granted, perhaps I should have seen Wigan Athletic’s surprise 1-0 win over Tottenham last week coming. Spurs were no doubt suffering a post-Champions League qualification hangover and have seen their squad depleted, notably their strike force.

Not many would have predicted Blackpool’s opening day mauling of Wigan although the new boys’ hunger, combined with a shocker from Wigan goalkeeper Chris Kirkland and a lethargic performance by his fellow team members, was tangible.

Nor did I see Sunderland overcoming Manchester City last weekend. Again though, perhaps my naivety showed in not believing in Steve Bruce’s capable squad and their ability to defeat  a newly assembled group of highly paid mercenaries who have yet to form a ‘team’ in the true sense of the word.

That though, is encouraging a debate that will rage over the course of the season and will have to wait for a future blog.

With the newly promoted teams largely proving cannon fodder for the bigger fish, it’s been up to the established sides to offer a threat. Fulham salvaged a point in their 2-2 draw with Manchester United however perhaps I should have expected nothing less given the Cottagers’ home form against United. It is also worth considering the Red Devils’ makeshift defence minus Rio Ferdinand.

It is mainly the games concerning those aspiring for Europe and those settling in for a comfortable mid-table finish that have had me stumped.

For example, I gambled on Everton to sneak a win in the Midlands last Sunday against a struggling Aston Villa side. I was imagining headlines reporting caretaker manager Kevin MacDonald had stepped down.

Cue a scrappy home win for the Villains despite Everton’s best attempts at salvaging a point from the moment Villa took an early lead through defender Luke Young.

It’s a rare occurrence for ‘Big Four’ to drop points against those at the bottom. As Fulham showed however, they can be susceptible to slip-ups against the established teams. In truth, there isn’t much to choose from between the mid-table sides as they search for consistency to progress further up the league.

I fear that until I manage some consistency in guessing the results concerning these teams, I could be struggling near the bottom of the table for some time. The consolation for me is that at least there is no chance of being relegated – yet.

By William Geldart